Ok I'm not the Rumor Queen but someone from that forum posted that they saw a pattern of referrals. Meaning give or take a couple of days if you look at October referral period, they referred 19 days. In 2006 for the late Sept/Oct referral period they referred 18 days. On average they are sticking with a 12 day referral. You need to look at this over a year's worth of time. That said, I created a spreadsheet so I can see where I fall.
So here goes....Here is the chart showing the pattern, I repeated the days starting with Sept/Oct of 2006.
So even if they change the number of days referred each time but stick on average to 12 days... Not good..... End of June 2009. Remember my LID is 9/11/06
Now if they kicked it up a notch and on average referred up to 15 days. Give or take we would receive a referral in late Jan 2009.
Now if they kicked it up a notch and on average referred up to 15 days. Give or take we would receive a referral in late Jan 2009.
If they kicked it up even futher and start on average to do 18 days of referrals. Keep in mind, this is an average. We would get a referral in late Oct/Nov of 2008 -- ahhh so much better.
That's all I have with the analysis. Probably the same as Rumor Queen but I need it spelled out in a spreadsheet. When the next referral comes in, all I have to do is plug in the number of days and see where my highlighted area is.
Who knows if this is right or wrong but heck it is something eh?
Jen
5 comments:
Yeesh. All I can say.
I can't decide if the numbers help or hurt. I think we're all ready for some good news...
You really think they sit there and say "we did this amount last year, lets screw with the Americans and do the same. . ."
??
Wicked Witch
No I don't think that at all.
However, long term ( a year and half) the average has been 12 days. If you plug 12 days into my chart - it really doesn't change much -- I move down a month. The 12 day referral average only works for long term not for anyone close to referral.
Ugg.
I quit doing the math.
The average was 14 days for the prior 7 months until the lousy 2 day batch.
It takes less to lower the average than it does to raise it back up.
I hope this months good rumor pans out, that could change everything.
nice to see ya posting again
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